Friday, February 13, 2009

Leading Economic Power of 2050

Guess what nation will probably surpass the U.S. and all others economically, perhaps within the next 15 years? Yep, you got it right. It's China. According to the new book, The Chinese Century, by Oded Shenkar, Ohio State business professor, China's already meteoric rise, fueled by western investment and western technology, has put China on the path to become the dominant economy worldwide.
Here are some points made in the book.
1) "The rise of China is a watershed,' said Shenkar. "I compare it to the rise of the United States in the late 19th century."
2) U.S. pressure on China to re-value it's currency to real value will temporarily slow the fusion of cheap- skilled -labor, and Chinese imports that make China so competitive. But this will not slow down the Chinese export glut much.
3) He used purchasing power as the criteria rather than the normal out put and growth charts most economists use.
4) He believes (and most of us too) that the Chinese economy today is actually larger than the statistics given for it by economists.
My observations to the professor's contention it is to point at what role more freedoms and less interference by the Chinese government must take place for China to become number one. I think a nation can become a great economic power absent democracy, but I am not sure if it can become the greatest one without free choice in both the economy and politically.
Will the economic boom in China fade out if the Chinese government still rules dictatorially? If not, will the Chinese government be willing (or be forced ) to open itself to allow full economic growth? I think those questions will determine whether China does become the economic giant it should be.

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