Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Duck and Cover

Get ready to "duck and cover", that is, if a survey that was conducted by the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee is an accurate one. There is a 70% chance of an attack somewhere in the world with a "weapon of mass destruction" in the next ten years, arms experts predicted. Eighty five experts in weapons said that with 5 more countries likely to acquire such weapons, the threat of a catastrophic attack is not only real but increasing with time.
This is true despite any increased democratization and stability in some trouble spots in the world, probably because terrorist groups will be more easily able to obtain the lethal weapons. The survey respondents said there is a 16.4 % risk of a nuclear attack within the next 5 years and a 29.2% risk over the next 10 years.
Asked to consider the possibility of a nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological attack on any nation, they concluded the chance to be one in four to as much as 50 % over five years and 70 % over 10 years. The most likely scenario of attack is the radiological one, with a "dirty bomb" (that kills people with radiation but does not destroy property).
They concluded there is a 40% probability of that happening within the next 10 years. And what is the recommendation of the 84 experts in preventing this? It is the feeble one that is unlikely to have any affect on stopping terrorists groups- to increase spending and attention world wide on non-proliferation programs.
Though only the U.S. Russia, Britain, France and China have admitted to having nuclear weapons, three others-India, Pakistan and Israel are known to have them. All three are considered far less stable and likely to use such weapons if threatened. Too North Korea, a mad man in the world and a likely source for terrorists to obtain such weapons is close to developing the weapons.
It all makes one feel a little less secure about the future, particularly with the current political leadership in the U.S and some other nations. Can you say "Duck and Cover"?

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