PC Popularity Decline

I read an article recently about the decline of the computer in Japan. It's interesting, because the japanese are the world leaders in technology. They are in love with it, spend greatly on it and integrate it nonstop into their lives. So, as Japan goes toward favoring other personal communication technology, will the rest of the world follow? The PC's role in Japanese homes is diminishing, as newer gadgets such as smart phones that act like pocket-size computers, advanced Internet-connected game consoles, digital video recorders with terabytes of memory take over the interest of the Japanese consumer, the personal computer is being pushed aside.. A new PC just isn't high on the priority list right now for many Japanese. Because of the high cost of a PC and the many alternative choices of devices, many more would rather buy something else. The article claims that Japan's PC market is shrinking fast, leading analysts to wonder whether Japan will become the first major market to see a decline in personal computer use. It's significant because Japan is the nation that most often experiments with changes in household electronics that lead to world side use of them. One wonders whether this could be the picture of things to come in other countries.
I am not sure the standard computer will ever disappear, at least not in some form. I remember when laptops were first popular. Many said it meant the death of the PC, but it surely has not. I know the cell phone addicts love their phones as much as they love themselves, but such small devices do have limitations that a PC does not have.
The article claims that the household PC market in Japan is losing momentum to other electronics like flat-panel TVs and mobile phones, Overall PC shipments in Japan have fallen for five consecutive quarters, the first ever drawn-out decline in PC sales in any key market. The trend shows no signs of stopping. In the second quarter of 2007, desktop sales in Japan fell 4.8% and laptops 3.1%. Hitachi has already announced it will pull out of the household computer business entirely in an effort to refocus more on other electronic devices the consumer wants. Consumers aren't impressed anymore with bigger hard drives or faster processors. That's not as exciting as a bigger TV, or a fancier cell phone. In Japan, kids now grow up using mobile phones, not PCs. The implication of that is that future of PCs isn't bright in Japan. Of course, Japan is the most sophisticated market in the world for electronic. PC's are actually growing in sales in the markets that are unsophisticated electronically. PC sales are growing in places where residents have never had one. So will there be a division between the haves and have nots in what electronic devices are most preferred and used?
Sales of PC's in the U.S. and other wealthier nations are slipping, while sales in poor nations are skyrocketing as PC's become less expensive to buy. The article claims that it's clear why the Japanese consumer is shunning PCs. Millions download music directly to their mobile devices, and many more use their handsets for online shopping and to play games. Digital cameras connect directly to printers and high-definition TVs for viewing photos, bypassing PCs altogether. Movies now downloaded straight to TVs.
More than 50% of Japanese send e-mail and browse the Internet from their mobile phones, according to a 2006 survey by the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The same survey found that 30% of people with e-mail on their phones used PC-based e-mail less, including 4% who said they had stopped sending E-mails from PCs completely. And the fastest growing social networking site in Japan, Mobagay Town, is designed exclusively for cell phones. Other networking sites like mixi, Facebook and MySpace can all be accessed and updated from handsets, as can the video-sharing site YouTube. At a consumer electronics event in Tokyo in October, the mostly unpopular stalls showcasing new PCs contrasted sharply with the crowded displays of flat-panel TVs.
Hmmmmm It seems that the PC's value will fade unless the PC can offer some breakthrough functions. But the computer industry is not as innovative as many of the other electronic communication device market segment. So that is not likely to happen The slide has made PC manufacturers desperate to maintain their presence in Japanese homes, but they are doing it with frills rather than innovations.. Recent desktop PCs look more like audiovisual equipment, or even colorful art objects, than computers. Sony Japanese desktop computers have folded up to become clocks, and its latest version even hangs on the wall. Laptops in a new Sony line are adorned with illustrations from hip designers like ZAnPon. NEC is trying to make its PCs' cooling fans quieter to address a common complaint from customers, it says. But I doubt those kinds of changes will be enough to encourage more sales. Japanese consumers are sophisticated and want innovation, not just design changes.
What do you think?