Friday, September 20, 2013

The Wonderful Future That Never Was

There is an interesting nostalgia book by Gregory Benford called, 'The Wonderful Future That Never Was'. The book collects the various technological and lifestyle predictions made in the magazine 'Popular Mechanics' between 1903 and 1969.  It's notable to read and see how many of the predictions actually came true in one form or another. I don't know if some can predict the future or if they are just lucky at guessing about it. 

Predicting even what we will personally do tomorrow morning is hard for most of us, but predicting far into the future about things we have little knowledge is extremely tough. It's sort of an imagination test, I guess. We have to imagine the future on the limited data we already have and then make a guess.

The book is only about technological predictions. I am not sure if it is harder to predict future technology or to predict how humans will use new technology. Hmmmm How many people 50 years ago would have predicted the invention of cell phones versus how many would have predicted the awful behavior of most cell users? That's a hard question to answer, but I suppose human behavior is the most enigmatic thing in the universe, so I think that in the much more highly mannered era of 50 years ago the rudeness of the cell user would not have been predicted as often as was the prediction of the technology itself.

You can look below at some of the predictions that were made in those years and see what years the predictions were made.  I wonder if anyone has compiled a list of social predictions of the future, predictions about changes in human behavior. And is our behavior better now than it was between 1903 and 1969 (the years of the technological predictions of the book)? What are some predictions of the future about our behavior in society that you think might come to pass 50 years from now? The only thing I can predict is that the future will always be unpredictable.

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