Meteorologists And Stockbrokers Are The Same People

I was thinking the other day that if I were a young man who was about to attend college, what field would be the best to prepare for. I am not interested in which field offers the best pay, rather, I would want to find the field in which it is the easiest to get by. This reflects my limited talents and the fact that I would just want to have an easy day at work, not be bothered by high expectations. And after ruminating about this I concluded that meteorologists and stockbrokers have it best.

Just think about your local weather person, or a broker who advises you. In both cases we have low expectations for their correctness. On average, both of the two is right about 50% of the time. Hmmm I think that's the same as flipping a coin before deciding what choice to make. I could do that! Sign me up to be the weather forecaster. Perhaps the guess ratio in the weather field is why so many meteorologists have great skepticism of the "global warming" theory. The idea that climate can be predicted so precisely, as the global warming advocates contend, while humans can not even predict what the weather will be like 30 days from now.

Meteorologists and stockbrokers deal not only in the scientific, but also in the abstract and guessing field. Stockbrokers are like the global warming crowd that is so sure that humans can control climate. It's a false bravado based on the idea that the rest of us are just as clue less about which stocks to buy or what controls weather as are those two professionals. We listen to the meteorologist and stockbroker because we want to have someone to blame for our own lack of awareness about climate and the financial markets.

Some enterprising grad student should do research on this. Perhaps 1000 meteorologist could switch places with 1000 stockbrokers for a month or so. A comparison of their accuracy in their new position to what they predict after the switch would give us an idea whether my contention that both are about 50% when predicting. Hmmmm Maybe I can take an online meteorologist course and get my degree........